thinking man’s trader 4.26.12

Posted by on May 4, 2012 in Entry Level Member | 0 comments

Trad­ing Ideas Worth Sharing.

When it’s a mat­ter of life or death, a sim­ple check­list can make the difference.

In every high risk indus­try from med­ical surgery, fly­ing a pas­sen­ger jet, build­ing a sky­scraper and trad­ing lever­aged stocks or futures, you need a process for imple­ment­ing all the spe­cial­ized func­tions.  When the med­ical com­mu­nity was asked how to decrease the risk of surgery from com­pli­ca­tions or death, sys­tem­atized team work was the answer. This is some­thing that on the sur­face sounds easy but in real time it is one of the most dif­fi­cult processes to imple­ment.
 

In the Post Infor­ma­tion Age period – today’s Dig­i­tal Era –knowl­edge has exploded lead­ing to pro­fes­sion­als in every endeavor being spe­cial­ized. Thirty years ago the suc­cess­ful trader/ spec­u­la­tor was the dar­ing inde­pen­dent cow­boy. Today the cow­boy knows he can’t do it all him­self, he can’t know it all him­self. When he thinks he does he is quickly hum­bled by a detail he has overlooked.

What risk man­agers have learned is that a com­pre­hen­sive sys­tem, a sys­tem of sys­tems if you will, is needed which has the three fol­low­ing sets of skills:

 

1.    The abil­ity to see both fail­ure and suc­cess.  A Spe­cial­ist can only see his own results, he needs data to find what is being over­looked by oth­ers, i.e, the details being missed lead­ing to failures.

2.    Devise solu­tions to the fail­ures. This is where the major­ity of trader / devel­op­ers are stuck refit­ting their tech­nol­ogy, or get­ting more train­ing, or look­ing at more tech­nol­ogy.  But today the tech­nol­ogy can­not get much bet­ter; it is sim­ply an easy scape­goat for losers or a sideshow for car­ni­val hawk­ers.  The solu­tion is a check­list, what I call the “rules of engage­ment”, to make the spe­cial­ist, the trader bet­ter at what he does.

3.    The abil­ity to get the pro­fes­sional trader, the spe­cial­ist to imple­ments a check list. This is the most dif­fi­cult aspect of a com­pre­hen­sive sys­tem. Respected doc­tor and sur­geon Atul Gawande sum­ma­rizes it this way: “The use of a check list (a sys­tem for the sys­tem) forces us to acknowl­edge that we are not sys­tems in and of “our­selves!”, to embrace val­ues that we do not nor­mally hold close like humil­ity, team work and discipline.”

From my point of view #3 is dif­fi­cult because the vast major­ity of us are mav­er­icks, cow boys (shoot­ing from the hip!) and see it as being girl play to use a check list. Nor can most of us under­stand the rea­son behind of the “how” of not using a check­list will lead to increased risk.

How­ever, if it is your life (money)  that is on the line and the use of a check­list reduces the risk of death (loss) from surgery (trad­ing) by 46%, maybe we would have you atten­tion, it’s not too late.

Advanced Trader’s Toolkit, the St. Marie method.

I have long pro­fessed that trad­ing and strat­egy devel­op­ment are two dif­fer­ent modal­i­ties. Traders’ trade and strate­gist well they ana­lyze and develop sys­tem. When I tell this to prospec­tive clients and traders, I get a smirk from the major­ity. It must be the sim­plic­ity of the con­cept that some peo­ple just don’t get. In other words, if you exe­cute trades, analise the mar­kets and develop sys­tems you are a jack of all trades, no?

The abil­ity to trade — exe­cute and man­age risk — is just as impor­tant as the abil­ity used to fore­cast con­di­tion and direc­tion. In fact, if you do your home­work and read books about the trad­ing greats like the “Mar­ket Wiz­ards” it should become a clear and self-evident that the abil­ity to trade is just as important,maybe more so.

One type of per­son Cre­ative Break­through (CBI) is look­ing for over the years are good traders who are good team play­ers. What we have found is the good ones are will­ing to share and that the good traders use a lit­tle com­mon sense along the way. They are not slaves to a sys­tem, that is not how they define “dis­ci­pline.” They know that no mat­ter how good a sys­tem is that on widely expected “news event” days it is bet­ter to stand aside because of fast mar­ket slip­page and whip saw action. They have rules of thumb to avoid trad­ing that would put them­selves into a per­sonal inter­nal con­flict that will under­mine their trad­ing. They under­stand the insti­tu­tional power on major “option expi­ra­tion” days to have the mar­ket pegged in a range. They have rules of engage­ments they check off on each and every day before they trade.

CBI has a num­ber of good trader/clients and I wanted to share some insights with you from one of them here and many more in the months to come. He use of CBI’s Advanced Trader’s Toolkit which includes Quad Level sup­port and resis­tance indi­ca­tor, %C indi­ca­tor, Mo trader Oscil­la­tor and the Expect-Trend and Trend Extended paint bars.

 

Hello Jack, My trad­ing is extremely dif­fer­ent than your typ­i­cal sys­tems trader. It’s prob­a­bly 50% sys­tem­atic, 45% dis­cre­tionary and 5% lucky. I sell resis­tance and buy sup­port. There are allot of things that make my trad­ing suc­cess­ful, but that’s after many years of learn­ing and study­ing the way the mar­kets move. What I have come up with works very well!!!

I wait for the mar­ket to be over bought or over sold the more the bet­ter. The Quad sup­port and Quad resis­tance are extremely reli­able in giv­ing me a place to buy or sell the mar­ket and where to put the stop. I wait for the Mo Trader to show me that the mar­ket is over­bought or over­sold with an indi­ca­tion of +40 to 60 or more, or –40 to 60 or more. At that point I look at where the mar­ket is vs. where the indi­ca­tor shows sup­port or resistance.

I will make my trade at that level and risk the next level as my stop. The higher the level of sup­port or resis­tance the bet­ter. The mar­ket very, very rarely ever breaks through the outer lev­els of sup­port or resis­tance, when it does it is just squeez­ing and ends up going in the oppo­site direc­tion very fast which is the direc­tion you want it to go. I trade the stock index futures con­tracts, (S&P, ND, DJ) and have found that the eas­i­est one to trade with the most con­sis­tent wins with the low­est risk fac­tor is the Dow Jones. I look to make 30 points or more per con­tract and my risk are usu­ally 30 points or less per con­tract. I don’t look to make a killing on every trade, so as soon as I have 30 points or more and the mar­ket stops mov­ing in my direc­tion, I take profits!

Today, 7/19/99 was a per­fect exam­ple of how my trad­ing works. Right on the open the DJ U9 went to 11340, the high of the day and exactly at the most extreme level of resis­tance. At this time the Mo Trader was at 40+ which was telling me the mar­ket was way over bought. I imme­di­ately went Short at the mar­ket and was filled at 11330. Thirty min­utes later I was out with 50 points profit and took no heat on the trade. The mar­ket of course con­tin­ued to fall, but I was happy with my profits.

I have other rules that I fol­low with this just being one exam­ple. But fol­low­ing my rules, and keep­ing greed out of my trad­ing I had 66 trades from 6/15/99 through 7/15/99. 58 were wins, 6 losers, and 2 flat. I have to watch every minute of the mar­ket dur­ing real time to catch all these trades, but I never hold a los­ing trade overnight and very very rarely have to carry any trades overnight. If I miss a chance because I acted to slow I just wait for the next one. I never chase the mar­ket because that increases my risk.

I hope this helps you Jack.

Take Care, Patrick”

I shared a steak din­ner with Patrick at Sullivan’s Steak House at my win­ter res­i­dence in Palm Springs , Cal­i­for­nia in Novem­ber 2000. He had made nearly one and a half mil­lion over the last 15 months after start­ing with a rea­son­able account of 50k. My bar ten­der at Sullivan’s Michael Jasilewicz was a trad­ing stu­dent of mine, here is his LinkedIn pro­file now http://www.linkedin.com/pub/michael-jasilewicz/1/536/870.  We taught him how to be a good trader, he does it bet­ter as a man­ager of night clubs.

TED Online Pre­sen­ta­tions. I sug­gest Richard St. John’s 8 secrets of suc­cess at this link.

His pre­sen­ta­tion is a must “stop , lis­ten and learn” in 3 min­utes. Not a pre­sen­ta­tion by a bro­ker, invest­ment advi­sor or a finan­cial ser­vices spon­sor. If you want to jump into the deep end of the pool, watch Dan Ariely talk that answers: “Are we in con­trol of our own decisions?”

New screen cast video uploaded. How to trade with mar­ket dynam­ics as your key set up to tim­ing! Part of the Advanced Trader’s Pack­age, the Trend Kick Off and Trend Extended Paint Bars. How to use a top down approach to long term trade or scalp. I show two recent exam­ples of the mini SP and the EURUSD. View my Screen­cast, link from here.

Trend Kick Off and Trend Extended Paint Bar indi­ca­tors: USER DOC is down-loadable from the CBI member’s page from right side bar of home page.

Futures Truth Mag­a­zine Issue #4 dated Feb 3, 2012 recorded: Eclipsed Phase II trad­ing RB is up $16,730 on a DD of $3,155 with a win rate of 59% and a per­cent gain of 83% in 4 months!

Big Dog Day Trader on 10 mar­kets plu­gin for NT7 and TS9 remains on sale 1/2 off until the end of May, 2012. Results for all the mar­kets will be posted June 1, 2012.

For TradeSta­tion Bro­ker­age Clients via the TS Strat­egy Net­work CBI’s Advanced Trader’s ToolKit is avail­able. Just go to the TS Net­work pages to sign up for a free 30 day trial. Again for TS bro­ker­age clients only.

New Gold Mem­ber­ship Forum Page. Gold Mem­bers, please log in and you will be able to access CBI’s inner com­mu­nity. I have started a topic that fits with this issue of Think­ing Man’s Trader. I will post here my rules of engage­ment, the check­list that I review each day before trad­ing. My goal is to iso­late the missed details that lead to error in trad­ing to make us all bet­ter risk man­agers and there­fore bet­ter traders. I will be inter­view­ing some of the best traders I know to get their inputs as well and post­ing their inter­views only on these mem­ber­ship page. Many thanks for work­ing with me and CBI.

Eclipsed Phase IV day trad­ing per­for­mance, the evo­lu­tion of Vir­tual Aber­ra­tion into a mod­ern day winner.

Help wanted, our friend Alex Pressl has a full load work­ing on his PhD and can not keep up with demand for CBI’s prod­uct in Ninja for­mat. Any­one inter­ested in dis­cussing the oppor­tu­nity, con­tact me at your first opportunity.

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