(Everything you need to know is right here)
In this annual three issue technical brief you will find what everyone needs before the year begins, a map that provides the trader with a scenario map for the upcoming year based on a historically tested mathematical formula. ?a method based on over years of daily Dow Jones data. Traders gain insight into trend direction outlined for the year. More importantly, MarketMap2017 provides a change of trend dates for the entire year. These times pinpoint when traders can expect one of six types of change in direction. MarketMap gives the operator lead time to prepared and the ability to apply the correct trading strategy.
Now is your chance to get your copies of TMT’s annual MarketMap-2017 with the annual map of trends and the change of trend dates
Here is a sample from February 2016
Virtually everyone’s trade decisions could be impacted by the news event, economic events, political events broadcast by the mass media. I doubt seriously if you allow yourself to be reactive to such events or for them to be part of your trading strategy and, as a result, you consistently make money.
I would hope you have at least come to the realizations that news event based strategy is just speculation. Rather you want your trading to be objective and systematically based.
In 2010 I took my successful trading philosophy based first principles and decades worth of trading experience converted that into a comprehensive technical model to oversee all of my algorithmic – mechanical – trading strategies.
There are two main parts of the complete model. One is the Technical Event Model (TEM). This part of the overall systems anticipates changes in market context. In other words, direction trading signals only have a definition but no meaning unless the trader has an idea of what context they are coming from.
The second part of the master system is our MarketMap model that gives the trader major inflection dates, what TMT calls a change of trend dates (COTs) to expect Technical events.
Published March 29, 2016
The January barometer is likely the best known of any forecasting tool. It began as a bellwether month theory, if prices ended the month lower than it started the year, the next 11 months would be down. It was refined by the late and great Joe Granville ?a hero to me – to the first three days of January and later on in its evolution that included the low of the previous month of December needed to be broken to call the year bearish.
Thinking Mans Trader MarketMap for 2016 model
In the last two years running January indicator has been bearish, including 2016. This year the price action in January fit all the requirements for a bearish outlook including the market taking out the lows posted in December 2015.
It was originally devised by Yale Hirsch in 1972; the January Barometer has registered only seven major errors since 1950 for an 88.9% accuracy ratio. When you net out the eight flat years (less than +/- 5%) the batting average slips to a .738, which includes 2015.
The exceptional years that witnessed bull advances are 1966, 1968, 1982, 2001, 2003, 2009, 2010. So over 50 years it missed three yet over the last 15 years it missed four out of seven down January’s. Its batting average seems to be tailing off in the new millennium, maybe after getting too much notoriety.
The above graph is Thinking Mans Trader MarketMap for 2016 suggest that the year 2016 would be higher after the first half of the year is locked into a trading range. Our primary model of dates for major changes of trend (COTs) confirmed a major COT in mid-July, see table.
This primary time model is not about projecting a high or a low pivot; it is about a confluence of methods pointing to a time window for change, a change of trend.
Getting back to basics for a moment, there are only six trend changes. From up to down or up to sideways; down to up or down to sideways; sideways to up and sideways to down.
Both of these MarketMap models provide a nice and neat scenario for the year, and the bullish outcome of the current trading Dow range from 15,300 to 18,500. But while that gives me a warm and fussy feeling, it has little to do with how I will trade or my TMTs trade, except that it points out opportunities when no one else is looking for that change. It gives the trader an actual model to keep them from reacting to the hyper news media.
MarketMap puts my traders and me on the front foot, so there is no need to get caught by surprise not knowing what strategies to trade.
Our outlook is the bullish outlook for 2016.
Jack F. Cahn, CMT
Since 1989 Thinking Mans Trader
Get your copy of MarketMap 2017, three important publications: the year-end MarketMap for 2017 and the MarketMap January 2017 map with COTs for 2017 for one low price of $69.00.